Every year since 2009 we have been assessing the probable success of each new NFL head coach hire before his first game using our “Success Predictably Gradient (SPG)” analysis. Including the new slate for the 2017 season, we have evaluated the outlook for some fifty-six coaches. We excluded the interim men who were brought on during the season. While it truly takes in our judgment at least three to four years to determine if a new coach has the “right stuff”, nonetheless, we still evaluate actual performance each year as compared to our original forecasts. So let’s take a peek at the Class of 2016 and see how they did.
Here is how the class performed.
(* These guys actually made the playoffs)
Our SPG forecasts didn’t assume exceptionally good things from this group, and a winning percentage under 44.0% tends to substantiate that forecast. There were, however, some bright spots as well as some disasters. Our SPG grades anticipated that McAdoo and Gase would perform the best, and they fulfilled that expectation. In fact, both exceeded our expectations with playoff performances. On the other hand, we felt that Hue Jackson would at least hold his own, which even in Cleveland, he failed to do. We didn’t expect much from Chip Kelly, and he didn’t let us down. Mike Mullarkey’s winning record in Tennessee must also be considered a pleasant surprise.
As we mentioned above, you really can’t tell too much from a single season, although lately a number of owners have not waited much longer than that to pull the trigger.
For more on how we rate head coaches visit our website- http://perfectprocoach.com .
The Perfect Pro Football Coach by Robert DeLuca is now available at most other national booksellers.