Okay, the master, Bill Belichick, has done it again. Somehow he sent the new wave west coast invincible horde crashing down to earth. The Legion of Boom became the Legion of Doom in a split second. How does this guy do it? Six big dances and four trophies. If he is not the best ever, he is very close. What does he have under the hoodie that is so hard to find in another coach? He doesn’t look like much but the results are indisputable.
As a reaction to the incessant drive and all-consuming desire to one up their peers in the exclusive club that comes with NFL ownership, teams annually cashier about seven or roughly one fifth of the total head coaches per year. In fact, there have been fifty over the past seven years. As we have reiterated time and again both in this column and in the book, “The Perfect Pro Football Coach”, the owners are far more anxious to throw out the old than to adequately select a better replacement. Get the old guy the hell out, and then we’ll figure out what we do next! Unfortunately that mindset is doomed to failure. Things don’t seem to get better very often.
To back up this indictment of NFL ownership, a few numbers will suffice. In 2009, there were nine new head coach hires. Six seasons later, guess how many of these new guys still were employed? Why zero, of course! With Rex Ryan ousted from the Jets, all nine have been canned. From 2009 through 2011, twenty new head coaches were brought in across the league. Things are just a bit more encouraging with seventeen firings and three lucky survivors. Pete Carroll, Jason Garrett, and Ron Riviera still have their jobs, although both
Garrett and Riviera were wobbling before making the playoffs this year.
We have studied in depth the careers of 285 NFL head coaches, every one since 1960. We have established the profile of what the perfect pro football coach should look like based upon historical precedent. Using our Success Predictability Grid we can forecast the probable success of a new prospective coach. We have tracking data back to 2009, and we are certainly not infallible. Pete Carroll’s success, for instance has surprised us. The NFL owners hit on only three of twenty or a paltry 15%. Our forecasts for new hires have been closer to 75%, which is certainly far better than the league norm.
Why are the NFL experts so blind to history? It is a superb teacher.
We will review our outlook for the seven new members in the class of 2015 in this column in the near future.
For more on how we rate head coaches visit our website- http://perfectprocoach.com .
The Perfect Pro Football Coach by Robert DeLuca is now available at the I Bookstore and most other national EBook booksellers.