The dread of “no more football” is suddenly upon us. The Super Bowl is a fading memory and August seems like it is years away. The draft will begin to pick up steam in a month or so, but right now what can we talk about? Well, the prescient NFL owners have provided us with a little something – their annual bloodletting of head coaches. Next year, as of this writing, there will be seven new men prowling the sidelines for NFL teams in the fall. Does this mean those teams with new coaches will improve? If history is any teacher, the answer is in most cases a resounding “no”. The owners are always much more concerned with cleaning house than re-decorating.
Using our “Success Probability Gradient”, which compares the qualities of the new guys with what we have determined are some of the credentials of the very best head coaches of all time. A perfect score would be “100”, and that guy would be a “can’t miss” hire. Above 85 is excellent, 75-85 is very good, 65 to 75 is marginal, and anything else is almost surely doomed to fail. Here is the way we rate the Class of 2015.
|1||John Fox||Chicago||73||Probable Success|
|2||Pat Quinn||Atlanta||72||Probable Success|
|3||Rex Ryan||Buffalo||71||Probable Success|
|4||Gary Kubiak||Denver||70||Possible Success|
|5||Todd Bowles||New York Jets||68||Possible Success|
|6||Jack, Del Rio||Oakland||64||Probable Failure|
|7||Jim Tomsula||San Francisco||59||Likely Failure|
While there are some very familiar names in this group four of them have either been fired or abruptly left another head coaching position within the last few years. Our analysis does not subscribe to the theory that the second or third time is the charm. History indicates that most (but certainly not all) head coaches fare worse the second time on the job. Also, having been a head coach anywhere before is surprisingly not especially important but having been a coordinator in the NFL is very important.
It doesn’t take a genius to wonder how the 49ers and Broncos think they have upgraded based upon the performances of whom they let get away. Even the Falcons dismissed a guy who had won almost 60% of his games. Let’s check back on this group in a couple of years.
For more on how we rate head coaches visit our website- http://perfectprocoach.com .
The Perfect Pro Football Coach by Robert DeLuca is now available at the I Bookstore and most other national EBook booksellers.