About one year ago we applied our “Success Probability Gradient” analysis to the seven new NFL head coaches who were jumping into the fray for the first time during the 2015 season. Our forecasts of likely success in the NFL are based upon a reasonable period of performance of at least two or three seasons under fire, even though some owners chop their coaches sooner. We feel it is premature to condemn or praise a man after only one campaign. On the other hand, the ultimate, yet unfinished, body of work is in motion during year one, and it is worth taking a look to see how this crowd is doing so far. In fact, only one, Gary Kubiak made the playoffs, and another, Jim Tomsula, managed to get himself canned after only one year with the dysfunctional 49ers.
Here is how they fared in 2016. “Imp” is the number of games they improved over the previous year.
|1||John Fox||Bears||Probable Success||6||+1|
|2||Dan Quinn||Falcons||Probable Success||8||+2|
|3||Rex Ryan||Bills||Probable Success||8||-1|
|4||Gary Kubiak||Broncos||Possible Success||12||0|
|5||Todd Bowles||Jets||Possible Success||10||+6|
|6||Jack, Del Rio||Raiders||Probable Failure||7||0|
|7||Jim Tomsula||49ers||Likely Failure||5||-3|
Amusingly, our group finished exactly 56 and 56 as a group. Considering that all of them took over jobs for incumbents that were not acceptable for one reason or another, maybe a .500 record is not so bad. Each situation needs to be considered on individual merits. Gary Kubiak’s 12 wins and playoff bye berth are certainly impressive, but he took over a thoroughbred and did exactly what the departed John Fox did last season. Dan Quin started out 5-0 and then limped home as Offensive Coordinators caught up to Julio Jones. As usual Rex could not live up to his big mouth. Perhaps the very best job was turned in by Todd Bowles with the Jets, who added six wins to Rex’s total and only Ryan Fitzpatrick’s fourth quarter pick fest in the last game kept his team out of the postseason.
For more on how we rate head coaches visit our website- http://perfectprocoach.com .
The Perfect Pro Football Coach by Robert DeLuca is now available at the I Bookstore and most other national booksellers.