Credit If Credit Is Due

Our CASH system of ranking NFL head coaches is simple, accurate, and downright cute, but wouldn’t it be nice to know how a coach is likely to do before he toots his whistle in your practice facility? Sure, and that is why we developed our Success Predictability Gradient (“SPG”) analysis for new hires, which we have used since 2009. It has turned out to be pretty accurate in weeding out the achievers from the busts.

One of the more surprising facts we extracted from our analysis some years ago was that most re-hired NFL head coaches do worse the second time around. In fact, about two-thirds of them suffer poorer winning percentages than during the first gigs. The statistics bear this strange fact out.

We got to thinking about our SPG criteria and realized that we probably should include a measurement factor for prior head NFL coaching experience in our equation. To account for a previous head coach’s experience, we first compared his personal CASH score with the median CASH Score for all coaches. Eric Mangini, for example, in 2009 had a CASH score of 1,448, when the median CASH score was only 882. Eric had performed better than many. In fact, he ranked 102nd of 245 total coaches. With 143 coaches below him, Eric ranked at 58.8% of all coaches. Perhaps he merited a point or two in SPG because he had been better than average.

We have now added the following chart, which adds or detracts SPG points based on how a previous coach has done. It has no bearing on a coach who has never been a head coach before.

Previous Coaching Record

Points Adjusted           Coaches Peer Rank

                                                              + 8                                    + 90%

                                                               +6                                      80-89%

                                                               +4                                      70-79%

                                                               +2                                      60-69%

                                                                  0                                      50-59%

                                                                -5                                      Below 50%

In general, we don’t like it if a new guys has been a head coach before, but if he has done well we will recognize it. Alas, Eric didn’t snare any more points.

For more on how we rate head coaches visit our website-   http://perfectprocoach.comI

The Perfect Pro Football Coach by Robert DeLuca is now available at the I Bookstore and most other national booksellers.



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