Category Archives: Head Coaching and the Draft

How picking the right prospect affects the head coach

Progress Report for the Class of 2015

About one year ago we applied our “Success Probability Gradient” analysis to the seven new NFL head coaches who were jumping into the fray for the first time during the 2015 season. Our forecasts of likely success in the NFL … Continue reading

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High Noon, Texans, Time to Draw Down

Okay, Houston, go for your gun, and let’s see what you are made of. Here’s my take from three points of view: (1) what I think they will do, (2) what I think is best for the team, and (3) … Continue reading

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Buying Power

“They want you to cook the dinner; at least they ought to let you shop for some of the groceries.” — Bill Parcells Very few NFL coaches have the final say on who the team drafts; for nearly every team, … Continue reading

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Win Now! Be Number One Overall

Entering the 2013 NFL season the Houston Texans thought they were close, in fact, very close, to finally being really good and seriously contending for the Big Dance. After all, they were 12-4 in 2012 and even won 12 out … Continue reading

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The Number One Pick: Less than 50/50

As the NFL Draft approaches in May, speculation is already running wild about who will be the top pick. Unlike some years, there does not seem to be an odds-on favorite. While almost everyone agrees that this selection process is … Continue reading

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